A. S. Poola1, T. Oyetunji2, G. W. Holcomb1, S. D. St. Peter1 1Children’s Mercy Hospital- University Of Missouri Kansas City,Department Of Surgery,Kansas City, MO, USA 2Lurie Children’s Hospital-Northwestern University,Department Of Surgery,Chicago, IL, USA
Introduction:
Randomized trials with a definitive study design are powered by calculating the minimum sample required to achieve statistical significance given an estimated effect size (ES). The ES is the raw difference between two treatment arms. ES quantifies the magnitude of measurable differences between cohorts and is usually reflective of the true meaning of the trial regardless of statistical significance. Under a fixed protocol, we hypothesize that the effect size may mature near its final magnitude well before the completion of enrollment. To investigate patterns of ES during enrollment, we analyzed completed randomized trials with definitive study designs.
Methods:
Primary outcomes of 11 prospective trials were reviewed at a single institution. ES was calculated at intervals throughout each trial to determine at which point a steady clinical difference was achieved between treatment cohorts.
Results:
Table 1 summarizes our overall findings. Both the completed trial sample size and the number of enrolled patients at which the ES stabilized, are provided. ES stabilized at a median of 64% enrollment. All patients were needed to meet the precise ES in our smallest study, indicating the need for full enrollment in smaller studies. Otherwise, 50% of our trials required between 48% and 76% of patient enrollment to meet ES. In comparing clinical outcomes, 9 of 12 found a final difference that was nearly identical to the difference that could have been determined much earlier. Categorical outcomes met stabilized ES at 51% enrollment and continuous outcomes at 68%.
Conclusion:
ES and final clinical outcomes were achieved prior to the completion of enrollment for most of our studies. This suggests that clinical differences detected by randomization may not necessarily require the robust sample size often needed to establish statistical significance. This is particularly relevant in fixed-protocol interventional trials of homogenous populations where protocol compliance is high.